Tuesday, June 25, 2024
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Recent Poll Spells Doom for Biden as Trump Extends Lead

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A picture of Trump and Biden
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Recent Poll Spells Doom for Biden as Trump Extends Lead

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The political scene is heating up as former President Donald Trump pulls ahead of President Joe Biden by six points in a new national poll.

Nearly half of the polled voters are supporting Trump as the election drama unfolds this fall. The poll also shows Biden trimming Trump’s previous lead to just two points in a head-to-head contest, an improvement within the margin of error compared to the last survey.

Crunching the Numbers

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Currently, 49% of voters are rallying behind Trump for the 2024 election, while Biden trails at 43%.

Trump’s support has remained stable since January, whereas Biden’s has slipped from 45%, showing a tightening race as the election approaches.

More Candidates, More Choices

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The poll shows that the election dynamics shift dramatically in a five-candidate scenario, where Biden’s support drops to just 33%.

Meanwhile, Trump leads with 42%. Newcomers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West also make notable entries, capturing 16% and 4% of the vote, respectively.

A Poll Respondent

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Another poll respondent from New Jersey, who decided to remain anonymous and voted for Biden in 2020, said she wouldn’t be voting in November. “Our candidates are terrible. I have no interest in voting for Biden. He did nothing. And I absolutely will not vote for Trump,” she said.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who surveyed Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, said, “Americans don’t agree on much these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters’ desire to tune this election out.”

The Election Interest

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The question dates to the 2008 election cycle. The lowest level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012 at 59%. But it quickly ticked up in the next survey.

This election cycle, high interest has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll.

Approval Rating Comparison

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According to a new Gallup poll, at this stage in his presidency, Trump boasted an approval rating of 46.8%, substantially higher than Biden’s current figures.

These Gallup numbers highlight a challenging narrative for Biden, who lags behind not only Trump but also former Presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter at comparable points in their presidencies.

Biden Faces Mounting Disapproval

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The CNN/SSRS poll also shows that a whopping 60% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s presidential performance.

This significant dissatisfaction could spell trouble for his re-election campaign as November approaches.

Trump Maintains a Solid Base

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Despite the ups and downs of political tides, Trump’s support seems rock solid.

Consistent findings from CNN/SSRS show him retaining around 49% of voter support in polls from both January 2024 and October 2023, suggesting a strong and unwavering base as he heads into the election season.

A Tight Pre-Election Race

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Also, in August 2023 the polls showed Trump and Biden just a hair apart, 47% to 46%. This razor-thin margin hints at a fiercely competitive race awaiting us, where every move and message could tip the scales.

Both veterans of the 2020 showdown, Trump and Biden have secured the delegates needed for their party’s nomination. The upcoming election is set to be a rematch that some voters might be dreading according to various polls, yet it’s set to be one of the central narratives of this election cycle.

The Battle Post-Conventions

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After this summer’s conventions, the stage will be set for an intense electoral showdown.

Both Trump and Biden will be gearing up to not just defend their records but to win over those still on the fence, making every campaign stop crucial.

Unprecedented Unpopularity

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Biden is navigating historically rough waters, with approval ratings lower than any president has had at this point when seeking re-election. His ratings are among the lowest 12% of all presidential terms since 1945, highlighting the uphill battle he faces.

With the election still over half a year away, there’s room for shifts in public opinion. Biden has historically dismissed poor polling numbers, once remarking in 2022, “I don’t believe the polls.”

The Turnout

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McInturff, the Republican pollster, says the high level of interest in the poll has “always been a signal for the level of turnout” for a presidential contest.

“It makes it very hard for us to predict turnout this far in advance of November, but every signal is that turnout will be a lower percentage of eligible voters than in 2020,” he said.

The Road to November

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As the election draws closer, every poll, debate, and headline becomes crucial.

Questions remain: Can Biden regain momentum? Will Trump sustain his lead? The race is heating up, promising a dynamic lead-up to Election Day.