Many are talking about how Joe Biden is struggling to get support from the young voters who played a significant role in his win against Donald Trump in 2020. This is something that’s being discussed during the early stages of the 2024 presidential contest.
Can Biden convince young voters that his economic policies are good for them? Can he convince them that Trump poses a threat to their freedoms? Or that voting for a third-party or independent candidate is just a waste of time that helps Trump?
Can Biden win over young voters who are unhappy with his support for Israel’s war in Gaza? And can he motivate millennials and Gen-Z to vote for an 81-year-old president who’s been in the Senate way before they were even born?
Those are some big questions, and the answers could have a huge impact on the election for sure.
Recent Polls Reveal Trump Gaining Support From Younger Voters
There have been a few recent polls that show Trump is gaining support from the youngest voters. In fact, in some estimations, he is surpassing Biden. On the other hand, Biden seems to be struggling a bit more in attracting the attention of young voters than in previous years.
This development has political analysts confused and scratching their heads. It’s like a total role reversal from the usual political scene. Usually, the younger individual tends to lean towards Democratic candidates, while the older generation leans more Republican.
But now, Biden is gaining support among older voters compared to 2020, even though his recent approval among Americans has been on the low side.
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Trump Leads Biden Among Youths in National Poll
According to a recent NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College national poll, Trump is ahead of Biden. The report showed that Trump had a 2-point lead over Biden among Millennial and Gen Z voters.
When they asked Gen Z and Millennials who they would vote for if the election happened right now, 49% said Joe Biden, while 51% said Donald Trump. The young crowd seems to have some diverse opinions.
Fox News Poll Found That Trump Is Leading Biden by 18 Points
In a recent Fox News poll, Trump is leading Biden by 18 points among voters under 30. When they added independent and third-party candidates to the mix, Trump’s lead increased even more to 21 points over Biden.
However, in that poll, about 49% of people under 30 rated Trump favorably. Among the same group, only 31% found Biden favorable.
Evidence Is Mixed as Biden Wins Over Trump in Some Polls
While those two polls show Trump winning over Biden among younger voters, other polls still put Biden ahead. A Quinnipiac University poll that also came out recently estimates that Biden is 20 points ahead of Trump among voters under 35.
According to the poll, about 56% of voters aged 18-34 would choose Biden if the election were held today. However, only 36% of voters in that same group support Trump.
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How the Voting Polls Were Conducted and Challenges Faced
Polls can get all muddled when it comes to young voters. Building a solid survey sample of these types of voters can be challenging. Many polls use the phone survey method, where they call up voters and ask them questions. Younger people tend to ignore these calls. Hence, polling analysts say this could be messing with the poll results.
Abby Keisa, the deputy director of the CIRCLE research institute, says that young people don’t enjoy phone surveys like other groups do. They’re all about texting and social media, so picking up the phone for a survey doesn’t work for them. And because of that, it’s messing with the accuracy of the polls.
“Even if they’re on a cell phone, they’re much less likely to answer it,” said Kiesa. “That makes it hard when people are trying to use phone surveys to reach a representative sample of young people.”
Some polls use text-message interviews, a format more at home with the tech-savvy younger generations. A Split Ticket electoral analysis with text-message interviews found that Biden still leads Trump among young voters, but he’s lost some ground since 2020.
We’re not exactly sure what this drop-in youth support for Biden means, but it’s something to keep an eye on as we head toward the big Presidential showdown in November.
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Recent Polls Reveal Biden Doing Better With Older Voters Than Before
The Quinnipiac University poll found that President Biden is gaining more support among older voters above 65 years. He’s also ahead of Trump by 8 points in that age group.
If this turns out to be true, it could be a real silver lining for Biden because older voters make up a much bigger chunk of the voting population than younger people. If Biden can keep winning over those older voters, it could work in his favor.
Trump Gains More Support from Black and Latino
Limited evidence has some people speculating about a shift in how younger and older people vote in the future. This could be because the United States demographics and attitudes among different racial groups are evolving.
Trump has gained more support among Black and Latino voters this year than in 2020. On the other hand, Biden has seen an increase in support from White voters. This could be because White voters tend to be older, while Latino voters tend to be younger than the average voter.
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