As the presidential election approaches, different polls are being conducted to gauge contestants’ popularity and chances. According to a recent election survey, Republican Donald Trump has gained a slight advantage over Democrat Joe Biden.
On November 5, 2024, the presidential election is scheduled to take place in somewhat of a rematch of the 2020 election. As Trump and Biden bid for a second term, several polls have been conducted to gauge their chances. Several polls have shown both candidates have a slight advantage over each other, with some being tied.
According to a Sunday projection simulation that was conducted, Trump won 51 out of 100 times, with Biden winning 49. These new data results show a drastic change since the simulation was launched in April 2024.
Between April and May 2024, the project forecasted Biden as the winner of the electoral race. According to the results in April 2024, Biden was predicted to win 58 times out of 100, in contrast to Trump’s 41. The prediction remained until the first week of June 2024, which showed Biden leading 53 times out of 100.
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The survey runs its simulation using polling, economic, political, and demographic data to predict election outcomes. These predictions are vital as the election hinges on key swing states allocating Electoral College votes based on population.
According to electoral law, for a candidate to be declared president, they must have secured a minimum of 270 electoral college votes. Consequently, a candidate winning the national general election doesn’t guarantee a victory until after the electoral college election.
However, with November 2024 being 5 months away from June, it is too early to determine how the election will go. Several polls have generated results, with some edging the Democratic candidate above the Republican candidate.
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According to a poll published in mid-June 2024, the Echelon Insights poll showed Biden leading the race. According to the survey, out of 1013 participants, 486 would vote for Biden, compared to Trump’s 476.
Also knotted between Biden and Trump is Virginia, a state that hasn’t supported a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004.
According to Heath-Brown, the pre-election polling shows that the result is still equally divided between both presidential candidates. Brown is an associate professor of public policy at the City University of New York. Brown stated that polling since February 2024 consistently shows a close division between Trump and Biden.
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Additionally, Brown said that a significant section of the public is unsure about who to support or whether to vote on election day.
On June 27, 2024, Biden and Trump had their first of two planned debates ahead of the elections. Up until the election in November 2024, 538 will execute its forecast model daily and update it based on the most recent data.
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