When it comes to politics, whims change frequently, and the outcome is never certain until it occurs. When Republican Ted Cruz initially expressed his desire for reelection, many were certain he would win. But now he has a Democratic opponent for the Senate seat who may give him a run for his money.
Cruz’s opponent is none other than Congressman Colin Allred. He won the Democratic primary for the Texas Senate seat on Tuesday, easily beating his nearest challenger, Sen. Roland Gutierrez, by over 40 points.
Cruz also easily won his party’s primary on Tuesday and is considered the favorite to win reelection come November. However, some polls suggest Allred will be a serious challenge because at least two surveys suggest the candidates are tied.
Allred’s Senate campaign is also outraising Cruz. The Democrat has been receiving millions in campaign funds more than the Republican incumbent in the previous two quarters.
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As things stand, the Texas Senate election is looking like yet another hot contest as it was in 2018. Back then, Cruz beat former Democratic Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke by merely over 2.6 points.
According to a recent University of Texas at Tyler (UTT) survey, Cruz and Allred tied on 41 percent in what was then a hypothetical face-off for the Senate seat.
In February, a National Public Affairs poll of likely voters also showed the Republican and Allred tied at 44 percent. Shortly after the poll’s publication, Cruz revealed that the Democrats have made flipping his Senate seat their “number one target.”
In his victory speech on Tuesday night, Allred claimed that “Cruz has had 12 years of pitting us against each other,” and change must now happen in Texas.
“It’s time we had a senator who will bring us together, I’ll be that senator,” Allred said. “We’ve had enough of me guys. We is much more powerful than me. We can do this together.”
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Some other polls and forecasts suggest Cruz, who enjoys the incumbent’s advantage, has a clear edge in the race. Forecasters’ Race to the White House gives Cruz a near 71 percent chance of winning November’s election. Allred got a 29 percent chance.
In February, a Texas Politics Project poll showed Cruz ahead of Allred by 14 points (46 to 32 percent). The remaining 13 percent said they hadn’t thought enough yet about who they could vote for.
Should Allred win, it will be the first time a Democrat has won a Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Whoever comes out on top could have major implications for who controls the upper chamber next year.
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Currently, the Democrats hold a 51-49 seat majority in the Senate, including three Independents who caucus with them, after the GOP failed to achieve a “red wave” as predicted in the 2022 midterms.
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