Long-term inflation, which has driven up food and petrol prices, along with high interest rates, seems to be undermining consumer confidence. However, one area of consumer spending remains resilient. 

In April 2024, petrol stations led the way with a sharp increase in sales, defying the general trend of stagnation. This unexpected upsurge underscores the impact of volatile factors like fuel prices on consumer behavior.

Economists advise against high levels of spending. A growing number of people have started taking money out of their declining savings.

Credit cards have become more popular among others. Furthermore, with the extra money saved by different households during COVID from the government, the possibility to travel or attend events is almost entirely gone.

After months of rising gas prices that had previously put a strain on consumers’ budgets, gas stations saw an unexpected turn in sales, with a 3.1% increase, the highest of all sectors.

As gas prices started to cool, spending at gas stations increased, demonstrating the direct impact of fuel costs on consumer behavior.

Consumer spending expectations had been modest due to various factors. Higher borrowing rates usually result in fewer people buying vehicles and other expensive stuff.

Moreover, higher rates frequently cause contractions in interest-sensitive construction and other industries, resulting in job losses and decreased household incomes.

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We should expect to observe some delayed effects from the rising interest rates. The year’s first half will likely witness direct consequences on consumer expenditure.

Furthermore, it often takes some time for other interest-sensitive industries to react to the rising rates. This is because of the lengthy lead times for larger construction projects and many firm capital expenditure initiatives. As a result of the previous interest rate hikes, economic growth is probably going to slow down early this year.

Recently, there has been a noticeable shift in consumer sentiments, which may be related to low income. Economic factors typically influence consumer views.

When non-economic factors like terrorist strikes come into play, they can be a separate component. With the recent uptick in the economy, opinions won’t diminish the amount of money customers have in their bank accounts.

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The total amount of excess savings reached a peak of $2.3 trillion in August 2021. Families started spending some of their excess savings after a few months of saving funds, although it was gradually.

This is because the cost of facilities has increased. Based on the economist’s estimations, approximately $850 billion in surplus savings remain.

Although petrol stations witnessed the biggest increase, growth was also seen in other industries. Sales of apparel and accessory stores, food and beverage stores, and restaurants and bars also experienced increased sales.

Even if they are small, these advances show that, despite general economic caution, certain areas have seen targeted spending.

Online retail sales experienced a notable decline, which deviates significantly from previous months’ online shopping highs.

A possible explanation for this decline could be that consumers prioritize essential purchases over discretionary spending, which could also be related to seasonality.

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The Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates in light of slowing inflation and stalling retail sales. Today, many experts anticipate that rates may be lowered as early as September 2024.

This potential change in legislation is intended to boost economic growth and help heavily indebted customers.

Due to the economic crisis, there has been a market sell-off and a change in the projected date of the Fed’s interest rate reduction.

Markets are now pricing in cuts that would occur in late summer or early autumn, whereas previously, they anticipated cuts to occur as early as May. According to some economists, the Fed might decide not to cut rates at all in 2024.

The unemployment rate increased in April 2024, indicating a weakening labor market that could further affect consumer spending. Hiring has also slowed down, and the number of people applying for first-time unemployment benefits has escalated to record highs.

Conversely, given the higher unemployment rate, consumer spending is holding steady while confidence is declining. Americans appear to be using their savings to finance their consumption, which could account for the downturn.

The economic environment is shifting, with petrol stations surprisingly leading to a surge in consumer expenditure. This pattern portends future difficulties, as do mounting consumer debt and a contracting labor market.

The reaction from the Federal Reserve, which may involve lowering interest rates, will be very important in determining how the upcoming months turn out. Navigating these economic developments will largely depend on how consumers adjust.

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