As things stand, there are 91 serious felony counts against Donald Trump pending in four jurisdictions. However, the outlook for a near-term trial date is not promising. The elections are fast approaching, and the Supreme Court does not want to proceed according to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s timetable.
Therefore, it seems more likely than not that Trump will not stand trial in a federal court before the election. Blame for this can fall on many shoulders. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did not convict Trump in the impeachment proceeding arising out of January 6, leaving criminal accountability to the Justice Department.
There is also Attorney General Merrick Garland. He waited almost two years before appointing Smith to take charge of January 6–related prosecutions.
With the state of things, experts are giving up hope of ever seeing such a trial. David Axelrod wrote that “it now appears that American voters will have to act as the jury if the former president is EVER to be held accountable for his actions leading up to 1/6/21.”
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Conservative Trump detractor Bill Kristol also says, “Those who hoped the legal system would stop Trump are disappointed. … Where does that leave the American people? Relying on ourselves.”
Even Smith seems to be tiring. He has asked for a July 8 trial date in Florida in the classified documents case. But he probably doesn’t see the D.C. case happening this summer.
Legal analyst Elie Honig offers a qualified timeline that sees the trial start in August, and we have a verdict in early October. This is wishful thinking. Honig also acknowledges this is if everything goes Smith’s way.
The Supreme Court can move fast when it wants to. In Bush v. Gore, the court made its decision the day after the oral argument. In the Colorado disqualification case, the court scheduled an argument 36 days after Trump’s decision to seek review. However, in the D.C. immunity case, the argument came 70 days after Trump’s petition.
There is also the question of when the court will rule on immunity. But the justices might not issue a final ruling at all. Instead, they would remand the case to the trial court to determine whether Trump acted within the scope of his job as president.
Then there is the concern that if this gets too close to the election, the trial judge, Tanya Chutkan, may not want to try the case. And, if the Mar-a-Lago case kicks off in July or August, it would effectively block the election subversion case altogether.
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Turning to the state court indictments, there will probably be a trial in Manhattan on March 25 on District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment over the cover-up of hush money payments to Stormy Daniels some eight years ago.
Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe thinks this case is the “consolation prize” for those who believe in Trump’s legal accountability. Tribe sees it as an “election interference case” rather than a mere payoff to a porn star.
In truth, though, the January 6 case is what everyone is eyeing because of its implications. Indeed, there are more political risks in the trial for Bragg than for Trump.
Even if Trump is convicted before a hostile New York jury, his chances of jail time or political consequences are quite remote. Then, if he is acquitted in Manhattan, or perhaps there is a hung jury, Trump will have won a significant political victory.
Supreme Court expert Jeffrey Toobin has never liked the idea of prosecuting Trump over January 6-related incidents. He said on television the other day that Smith should call the whole thing off. Former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance also sees little hope of a federal trial before the election.
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“It shouldn’t be possible for the 2024 election to take place before a jury decides whether Donald Trump committed crimes in an effort to steal the 2020 election,” she laments.
“As citizens, we have legitimate interests in learning the truth before the election.” In the end, the electorate, rather than a jury, will decide what kind of president should be in the White House.
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