In politics, certain events happen when you least expect them. Despite being among the least-liked politicians in their parties, Donald Trump and Joe Biden both won big in the primary elections on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, Nikki Haley, another candidate for the 2024 presidential race, ended her campaign.
Unless something unexpected happens, Trump and Biden will be the leading candidates in the November presidential election. Even though both political parties are rallying behind weak candidates, the Democrats’ choice is getting more attention because it seems like a mistake.
According to current polls, Biden and not Trump seem likely to lose. Considering Biden’s age and low approval ratings, it was surprising that he was the Democrats’ top pick. However, when pollsters ask who they’d choose in a race between Trump and other Democrats, none of Biden’s alternatives outperformed him.
For example, a recent poll by Emerson College showed Trump ahead of Biden by 1 point, beating Kamala Harris by 3 points. He also defeated California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer by wider margins of 10 and 12 points, respectively.
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These results suggested that Whitmer and Newsom’s lower national recognition than Biden might explain why they don’t do well in polls against Trump. While Whitmer performed better than Biden against Trump in Michigan, overall, there isn’t enough polling data showing any Democrat beating Trump. Also, none of the Democratic primary candidates have gotten a large share of the votes.
In the Republican world, Nikki Haley wasn’t a threat to Trump’s renomination. But if she had, polls showed that Republicans could have had a better chance of winning in November. In hypothetical matchups against Biden, Haley tends to do better than Trump.
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For example, in the New York Times/Siena College poll, Haley led Biden by 5 points, while Trump only led by 2. Another poll showed Haley with a big lead of 10 points over Biden. She has also demonstrated strong leads in polls from battleground states. For example, a recent survey by Marquette Law School showed that Trump and Biden were in a close race, but Haley led Trump by 15 points in Wisconsin.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, they missed a chance to win a significant victory. With Haley’s nomination, Biden could have been defeated, and Republicans could have gained large congressional majorities.
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The 2024 election provided a rare opportunity for the conservative movement to secure a significant electoral victory. This chance may not come again soon, especially given the circumstances of Biden’s presidency, such as post-COVID inflation and doubts about his mental fitness.
Nevertheless, Republicans have chosen to support Trump despite his nature and unpopularity among many Americans. They picked him rather than seizing this opportunity to push their conservative agenda through a candidate like Haley.
Regardless, the Democrats are counting on Trump’s reputation and the US economy to help Biden overcome challenges from both global discontent with incumbents and his weaknesses. But, in the future, the party must regain America’s trust in its ability to manage the economy before Republicans nominate a more conventional candidate.
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