It is looking like Joe Biden might have a Bronx problem. Last November, Republican Kristy Marmorato defeated incumbent Democrat Marjorie Velazquez by just over three percentage points in a 69 percent majority-minority Bronx-based New York City Council district. In the district, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans four to one.
According to recent state polling from Siena College Research Institute, it is the same demographic Biden is currently losing support from. Millennials and Hispanics have both started to tire of Biden.
And it is for the same reason he has been trailing behind his Republican opponent, Donald Trump, in about every public poll for the past few months: the perception of a flagging economy.
College-aged Gen Z still overwhelmingly trends Democratic. However, they’re also the least likely to vote. Older Millennials are now halfway to turning 50, while younger Millennials have experienced the job market for about a decade.
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Many are starting families and struggling to pay off debt or afford quality health care. The cost of living has increased significantly. The average Millennial buys his or her first home at age 36. This is about three to eight years later than members of previous generations did.
In such an environment, Siena’s battleground state survey of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada from October gave Trump a slight edge of 46 percent over Biden’s 45 percent with “likely” voters aged 30-44.
Trump led 47 to 43 percent among “registered” voters in that group. Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center reports, “Latinos have grown at the second-fastest rate of any major racial and ethnic group in the U.S. electorate since the last presidential election.
An estimated 36.2 million are eligible to vote this year, up from 32.3 million in 2020. This represents 50 percent of the total growth in eligible voters during this time.”
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Now, it seems Trump is winning these voters over and is doing so in large numbers. Increasingly, Latino voters are seeing Trump as morally upright, successful in business, and sharing their values.
USA Today-Suffolk University data from last month show Biden also trailing Trump among Hispanic voters, 39 percent to 34 percent nationally. It is similar to Siena’s battleground state survey from last October, which put Trump’s support at 40 percent.
The recent CBS/YouGov poll revealed that Hispanic voter preference for Trump has risen up to 45 percent. It leaves him trailing Biden overall among Hispanic voters, but that tally surpasses even George W. Bush’s peak performance in 2004.
Despite the perceived merits of his administration, Joe Biden is still overwhelmingly perceived as weak in handling the economy. And given enough time, people may choose to overlook Trump’s numerous demerits. Especially if they think he can give them a secure country after the election.
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It is clear that Biden’s headquarters needs to buckle up and start doing more if they hope to win the upcoming elections. Failure to do that may see the Democrats handing over the reins of power to a dangerous man.
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