Polls represent snapshots of public opinion at a particular time, and one recently released by Fox News has highlighted how Trump’s felony convictions have affected his campaign for President.
According to the poll, Biden is now in the lead, with 50% of respondents saying they would vote for him compared to the 48% who vouched for Trump. This is a three-point climb for Biden over last month’s figures and is the first time the president has garnered 50 percent support from respondents.
If the Election Happened Today
The poll, released on Wednesday, saw Biden’s approval ratings rise by three points, putting him ahead of Trump for the first time in a Fox News poll since October 2023. The poll asked respondents a simple question. According to the answers, if the election were indeed based on that poll, Biden would win, albeit by a small margin.
The Methodology Behind the Poll
The Fox News poll’s respondents included nationally registered voters, with a plus or minus three percentage point margin of error. The survey took place between June 14 and June 17. Factors that may have influenced how people responded include Trump’s felony trial verdict, Hunter Biden’s gun conviction, Biden’s actions concerning immigration, and US job numbers.
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Biden Gaining Approval
Not many are pleased with Biden’s achievements in the White House, but this poll proves that he is slowly gaining approval. According to Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster behind the survey, the results highlight how Biden is getting approval from certain groups while losing support from others. The groups who seem to like him more now include women and older folk, while those whose approval he seems to be losing include younger voters and African Americans.
More of What the Poll Revealed
Data from the poll suggests that there is increased hope concerning the economy. Many scored Biden high on the topic, which is a positive change considering how he has often been criticized for it. According to one-third of the voters, the economy is in “excellent or good shape,” which is a record high for the Biden administration. The previous high in the poll was in May, at 30%.
Many Disappointed Still
This poll is the most positive one for Biden in a long time; however, a large majority of respondents still think the country’s current economic condition is not good enough. 68% of the survey respondents said the economy was “not so good or poor.”
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The Poll Regarding Personal Finances
According to the survey respondents, personal finances have improved by 5% compared to last summer. 59% of respondents claimed to be either “getting ahead” or “holding steady” in their finances. However, 41% confessed to feeling like they were “falling behind.”
The Poll on Biden’s Approval
When it comes to overall approval, Biden’s number saw no increase or decrease compared to the previous month. The majority of Fox News poll respondents disapprove of Biden. This month’s poll revealed that 55% of people don’t like the Biden administration, while only 45% approve of his presidency.
How Respondents Voted on Certain Issues
Biden’s highest recorded score from the poll came from his handling of the economy. It received 41% approval, while his handling of inflation came second at 37%, and his handling of immigration took third place at 35%. 34% of those who responded claimed to like the state of things in the country, an increase of two points from 2023.
Interpretation of Poll Results
The poll’s results have triggered speculation about how Trump’s felony convictions have affected the Republican camp. Some believe such an outcome from a traditionally conservative-leaning outlet like Fox News is evidence that independents and conservatives have finally had enough of Trump. One X user used the word “tired,” and they may be right, as most major polls have revealed a major shift toward Biden.
A Temporary Shift
Some experts believe that this poll, and many others, only represent a snapshot of how people feel given recent events and are subject to change in the long term. Pollster Lee Carter has pointed out that similar shifts were recorded in 2016. He also highlighted how Trump was never ahead in polls from 2016 or 2020, which is evidence of how far he has come with winning approval.
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A Recurring Phenomenon
Pollster Carter also saw fit to emphasize Trump’s historically strong performance. According to him, the former president has outperformed poll results in the past, and the phenomenon will likely repeat itself in the coming election.
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