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Katie Porter’s Fate in the California Senate Race Looks Bleak Amid Low Voter Turnout

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In 2018, a political newcomer, Katie Porter, defeated a two-term incumbent Republican to represent California’s 45th district in the US House of Representatives. Consequently, she turned the famously conservative Orange County blue.

A picture of Katie Porter
Source: Pinterest

Porter, a law professor and Elizabeth Warren protege, had a refreshing message. She vowed to stay laser-focused on addressing how America’s financial institutions prey on ordinary people. Over six years as the representative of Nixon’s birthplace and Reagan’s political stronghold, Katie Porter has built a national political profile.

In addition, she has become a force in the House of Representatives. With viral videos of her confronting bank CEOs and Republican appointees, Porter made a name for herself. Now, she’s hoping her image as a fierce fighter, a savvy communicator, and a champion of ordinary people against big corporations will propel her to the US Senate.

Katie Porter is one of three prominent Democrats running to fill the seat of late Senator Dianne Feinstein in November. However, the California Senate race is coming down to the wire for Porter. She looks to be in second place to advance into November’s runoff in the state’s “top two” primary.

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According to reports, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) leads the crowd of California Senate contenders in polls. Hence, Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are hovering around second place. The same ballot will show all the candidates, regardless of party affiliation, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November.

Unfortunately, low voter turnout threatens to end Porter’s congressional career early. Data shows that voters casting ballots are older and whiter, which could push Garvey into the runoff with Schiff. Hence, this would lead to a red-blue showdown in the November elections.

“All along, this race has been Adam Schiff’s to lose,” said California-based Democratic strategist Kate Maeder. Furthermore, Meader argued the low turnout “absolutely” benefits the frontrunner.

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“The only people really voting are older, white voters who have seen Adam Schiff on CNN and MSNBC for years,” Meader said. “So he has this sort of built-in advantage heading into the race.”

Schiff, Porter, Garvey, and Barbara Lee are running to serve a full term, replacing the late Feinstein. Although Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) temporarily filled the seat, he decided against running for a full term. Hence, the four frontrunners are among 27 candidates running for the seat, whose term begins in January 2025.

Schiff has amassed a sizable war chest, beginning the year with nearly $35 million in the bank. Furthermore, he has enjoyed recognition as the lead House impeachment manager in former President Trump’s first trial. Also, he served on the House select committee investigating the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.

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Similarly, Porter, best known in the House for her iconic whiteboards during committee hearings, started the year well. However, she started with a smaller but notable cash of about $13 million. Lee, who is famous for her time volunteering for the Black Panthers, has trailed in the polls and fundraising. 

According to reports, Lee started this year with less than $1 million in the bank. Besides the money, Democratic strategist Maclen Zilber said Schiff has fared well in most public polling. Zilber says this is because of Schiff’s high profile and sheer financial advantage over his opponents.

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