Interviews with dozens of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters point to a paradox about the independent candidate, one of the biggest wildcards in November`s presidential election.
Conventional wisdom, backed up by some opinion polls, says that Mr Kennedy, a member of the country’s most famous – and Democratic – political family, presents more of a threat to Joe Biden than to the Republican nominee Donald Trump.
However, other recent surveys, interviews with supporters, and a closer look at the issues that animated Mr. Kennedy’s base tell a different story – that perhaps Mr. Trump is the candidate who should be more worried.
Experts say support for third-party candidates tends to decline closer to the election, and Mr Kennedy is extremely unlikely to win the White House.
However, in the last election, the share of the vote going to third-party candidates declined, allowing Joe Biden to improve on Hillary Clinton’s slice of the vote by about 3.
It was one small piece that allowed Biden to flip Michigan back into the Democratic column in 2020.
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“All of us support his position against vaccination,” he said, gesturing at the small crowd of Trump fans.
In April 2020, then-President Trump focused his ire on Gretchen Whitmer, the state`s Democratic governor, for imposing lockdown measures, tweeting: “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” The state was the site of numerous protests against Ms Whitmer’s Covid policies, including tense armed rallies at the state capitol.
“Democrats in Michigan are not like Democrats in California,” he said. Several Kennedy supporters back at the theatre – who paid $99 each for a comedy ticket – declared they opposed lockdowns, masks, and Covid vaccines.
Ms White described herself as a former Democrat – “I voted for Obama,” she said – but noted that in 2020, she cast her ballot for Mr Trump.
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After the comedy, Mr Kennedy remarked: There are people outside tonight who worry that I`m going to take votes away from President Biden and get President Trump elected.
And there are people who I run into every day who are worried that I’m going to take votes away from President Trump and get President Biden elected.
Mr Kennedy’s “pox on both your houses” message resonates with Liz Glass, a 59-year-old self-described recovering Democrat who owns a deli in Boyne City, in northwest Michigan.
“Despite the dreams of the liberal echo chamber, Kennedy is an existential threat to Joe Biden, not President Trump,” Mr Hughes said in a statement, citing Mr Kennedy`s views on taxes, fossil fuels, and gun control.
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That’s a break from several previous polls, which showed Mr Kennedy pulling more support away from Mr Biden.
In Michigan, those have come to naught, as Kennedy recently gained ballot access after being nominated by the tiny Natural Law Party.
But, Mr Matthews said, his presence in the race could cause several surprises, not only in close battlegrounds like Michigan but states that seem relatively safe for either candidate.
‘‘At a level of 8 or 9 percent – roughly where he is at in the polls now – his support could jumble the outcome in several places,” Mr Matthews said.
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