The Democratic National Committee is launching a campaign to counter Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s longshot presidential bid. The latest indicator is that the former Democrat poses a real threat to President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.
RFK Jr. is uniquely positioned to take votes away from Democrat Joe Biden as polls show his rising popularity with Hispanic voters in key swing states like Arizona and Nevada. Political analysts predict that Biden’s route to the White House will likely depend on support from these two states, which he won in 2020 by very slim margins.
FFK Jr. began his bid for president in the Democratic primary, seeking to challenge incumbent President Joe Biden. However, in October 2023, he announced he would be running as an independent.
RFK Jr.’s Chances of Winning
RFK Jr. is trailing behind the two presidents in the other age groups, with the independent candidate’s lowest numbers coming from registered voters aged 45 and above. At 20 percent support, he is heavily behind Trump and Biden in the 45-64 age group, who carry 41 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
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Among registered voters aged 65 and up, RFK Jr. had 17 percent of the people polled, while Trump took 37 percent and Biden took 39 percent.
RFK Jr’s Declaration
The poll illustrates the Independent candidate’s growing popularity with young Americans as he seeks the White House. RFK Jr. announced last month that he would stop campaigning as a Democrat and instead make an independent run.
“Something is stirring in us, saying it doesn’t have to be this way,” RFK Jr. said, adding that Americans are “ready to reclaim their freedom and independence.” “I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for President of the United States,” he continued.
“But that’s not all, I’m here to join you and make a new Declaration of Independence for our entire nation,” RFK Jr. said. “We declare independence from the corporations that have hijacked our government.”
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RFK Jr. also said that he and the crowd assembled declared independence from both political parties as well as the “mercenary media.”
Did RFK Jr. Truly Call for Unity?
RFK Jr. called for unity in the country and said that politicians getting “all of us to hate each other is all a part of their scam.” As stated earlier, he was initially running as a Democrat in an intra-party challenge to Biden. Still, the DNC maintained support for the incumbent president and reiterated that they would not schedule primary debates.
Big Threat to Biden
Mike Noble, the founder of polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, which conducts polls in Arizona and Nevada, recognizes RFK Jr.’s threat.
Nationally, those close to the Biden campaign wave away from RFK Jr.’s possible impact and say they don’t believe the 70-year-old former environmental lawyer and son of former New York Democratic Sen. Robert Kennedy Sr. got more than 1 percent of the vote.
Yet even if he doesn’t, that’s enough to alter the outcome using the 2020 vote totals, 1 percent would still triple Biden’s winning margin four years ago. “It’s a big threat to them if Kennedy gets on the ballot in these two states. He would be pulling more from Biden,” said Noble.
“That road to 270 Electoral College votes runs through the Southwest, and for them to dismiss him is silly.”
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Biden’s Win Over Trump
As mentioned earlier, part of the formula for Biden’s win over Trump in 2020 was his victories in Arizona and Nevada. Arizona had not gone blue for presidential elections since Bill Clinton won it in 1996. Biden managed to win the state by 11,000 votes.
In Nevada, he only won by 2.4 percent or around 34,000 votes. Recent polls show that Biden is slightly gaining on Trump in critical swing states but still trails him in most of them.
The lead that Trump has in many swing states has been narrowing in recent months. It’s unclear how close the gap will be just before the election in November, but a slight change in margins like this could have a drastic effect on the outcome of the race.
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